Bulls charge into D.C. to take on 14th-ranked Hoyas

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the postseason rapidly approaching, a pair of Big East Conference teams hoping to improve their prospects meet in the nation's capital this morning, as the South Florida Bulls take on the 14th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas.

USF comes in at 13-9 on the year, but the Bulls have charged hard through the bulk of its conference slate, logging a solid 6-3 mark thus far. The team has won four of its last five games, including an 81-78 decision at home over Providence last Sunday. That said, the Bulls have been an entirely different team in Tampa (11-1) than they've been on the road (2-6, 2-8 when you add in a pair of neutral-site affairs). They have split their last four road bouts though, so there is some reason for optimism today.

Georgetown has won 17 of its first 21 games this season, and the team is 7-3 against Big East competition. The Hoyas have won four of their last five as well, with their most recent victory coming in a 58-44 defensive battle against visiting Connecticut on Wednesday. Like USF, Georgetown has been dominant at home, sporting an 11-1 mark to this point, and the club has won two straight in D.C. following a 68-64 setback versus Cincinnati on January 9.

Georgetown has won seven of the previous 10 meetings in the all-time series with South Florida, which includes a 61-55 decision in the Sunshine State last season.

USF had five players score in double figures in the recent win over Providence, and the Bulls needed every point they could muster. Anthony Collins and Hugh Robertson scored 15 points apiece to pace the home team, which got 14 points from Ron Anderson, Jr., 13 from Toarlyn Fitzpatrick and 11 from Augustus Gilchrist. As a team, South Florida shot 50.9 percent from the field and hit 6-of-13 three-point attempts along the way. Both teams took exceptional care of the basketball, combining for only 13 turnovers. Gilchrist (10.7 ppg) is the only active player averaging double digits in the scoring column, and he is the only current starter netting more than 8.7 ppg. As a team, the Bulls are putting up just 62.1 ppg on 44.2 percent field goal efficiency and 70.7 percent from the foul line, while at the same time allowing a mere 59.0 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 40.7 percent overall and 30.8 percent from beyond the arc. A +3.2 rebounding margin also helps the cause.

Hollis Thompson scored 18 points as one of three Hoyas to reach double figures in the recent win over UConn, as the home team made just 21 baskets in the game, but permitted the visitors a paltry 18. Thompson added nine rebounds to his solid stat line, while Henry Sims tallied 13 points despite committing seven of GU's 15 turnovers, and Jason Clark chipped in with 11 points and five boards. The Hoyas scored 11 points at the free-throw line compared to just six for the Huskies, who were simply horrific in going 2-of-20 from beyond the arc. Clark (15.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 39 steals), Thompson (14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Sims (11.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 34 blocks) have been the most consistent performers for Georgetown this season, but guys like Otto Porter (8.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Markel Starks (8.0 ppg) have provided additional support when called upon. Like their counterpart today, and as evidenced in the recent win over UConn, the Hoyas have played exceptional defense this season in allowing just 59.2 ppg behind shooting efforts that come in at 39.4 percent overall and 27.9 percent from downtown. Offensively, the team nets 70.8 ppg in hitting 46.9 percent of its total shots and 36.2 percent of its three-point launches. Add favorable margins in both rebounding (+4.8) and turnovers (+1.4), and it's easy to see why the team is having such a successful season.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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